Description

This analysis provides a forecast of LPT prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-08 5.267258 6.257672 7.356656 8.662774 10.168777 11.846688 13.853408
2025-06-15 3.861285 5.142556 6.706927 8.741897 11.301653 14.395927 18.398320
2025-06-22 2.807153 4.135085 5.897010 8.371912 11.718628 16.041813 21.995041
2025-06-29 2.206755 3.550434 5.466056 8.337810 12.461993 18.086453 26.231862
2025-07-06 1.773513 3.092645 5.099212 8.286106 13.109648 20.002087 30.420267
2025-07-13 1.570137 2.934157 5.126579 8.781280 14.558245 23.133516 36.551276
2025-07-20 1.362892 2.722105 5.024542 9.041249 15.651583 25.813365 42.221989
2025-07-27 1.221887 2.593772 5.031014 9.459832 17.013519 28.987776 48.860430
2025-08-03 1.042182 2.356326 4.807881 9.450794 17.658782 31.074022 53.948909
2025-08-10 0.853203 2.060446 4.429358 9.109588 17.689353 32.148667 57.477074
2025-08-17 0.703038 1.811564 4.096633 8.798974 17.722763 33.203791 61.016066
2025-08-24 0.609365 1.665459 3.941136 8.797122 18.297921 35.202733 66.247152
2025-08-31 0.532336 1.543984 3.822658 8.862701 19.023017 37.552512 72.311198
2025-09-07 0.458933 1.414808 3.667136 8.832230 19.560187 39.608675 78.012110
2025-09-14 0.371905 1.228576 3.351866 8.420316 19.298859 40.177932 81.090559
2025-09-21 0.320762 1.126419 3.213648 8.372136 19.760293 42.119454 86.782728
2025-09-28 0.276792 1.033179 3.080442 8.315230 20.192387 44.028073 92.527255
2025-10-05 0.264088 1.032017 3.179421 8.810016 21.844222 48.423252 103.233795
2025-10-12 0.242112 0.995772 3.180704 9.070020 23.005034 51.918267 112.412559
2025-10-19 0.228325 0.983396 3.244258 9.489503 24.555246 56.294723 123.549842
2025-10-26 0.200819 0.915681 3.142595 9.480342 25.130858 58.712377 130.960212
2025-11-02 0.166929 0.813800 2.923713 9.138161 24.899392 59.429735 135.005524
2025-11-09 0.139137 0.725485 2.727447 8.826676 24.704457 60.200306 139.189232